Forex reserves fall by $12 bn : RBI data - Moneycontrol

The World This Week 10th July 2020 – 17th July 2020

Indian Equity Summary-
· Sensex ended higher by 1.2 percent as the bullish trend persisted for the fifth consecutive week in the domestic equity market ,on the back ofØ positive global cues and optimism over the development of Covid-19 vaccine .The focus is now turning to Q1FY21 earning season and more importantly for guidance and viewpoints of management.
· Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , any resurgence of Covid-19 cases globally, as economiesØ have started opening up ; will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 10800-11200 in the near term.
Indian Debt Market-
· The bond prices fell as the yield on the latest 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.80% on Jul 17 compared with 5.76% on Jul 10.Ø
· Reserve Bank of India announces the auction of three Government of India 91day, 182 day and 364 day Treasury Bills for an aggregate amount ofØ ₹35,000, to be conducted on 22nd July 2020.
· State Governments announced to sell securities by way of an auction to be conducted on 21th July 2020, for an aggregate face value of ₹ 9,000 Cr.Ø
· We expect that RBI will be in wait and watch mood before taking any major decision of rate cut on the back of recent inflation print.Ø
· We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.05% in near term.Ø
Domestic News
· India’s retail trade has suffered a business loss of about Rs 15.5 lakh crore in past 100 days due to the COVID-19 pandemic as per theØ Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).
· The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the US to India has crossed the $40 billion mark as on year to date, reflecting the growing confidence ofØ American companies in the country.
· Forex reserves rose by $3.1 billion on a WoW basis to hit a record high of $516.36 billion for the week ended July 10, according to Reserve BankØ of India (RBI).
· According to the latest data released by the Ministry of StatisticsØ & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s retail inflation(CPI) grew to 6.09% in the month of June as against the prior released figure of 5.84 in April for the month of March.
International News
· Hong Kong's April-June unemployment rises to 6.2%, being the highest in over 15 years.Ø
· Japan’s exports plunged 26.2% in June while Imports fell by 14.4% in June on a year on year basis , as per the data released byØ Ministry of Finance (MOF).
· Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China fell 1.3% in the first half of this year from a year earlier to 472.18 billion yuan ($67.47Ø billion)as per China’s commerce ministry.
· Gross domestic product (GDP) of China rose to 3.2% in the second-quarter from a year earlier as per the National Bureau ofØ Statistics, faster than the 2.5% forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, with the easing of lockdown measures and ramping up of stimulus by policymakers to combat the virus-led downturn.
· US GDP is expected to contract by an annualised rate of 37% in the Q2 2020 and by 6.6%for 2020 as a whole as per theØ International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff.
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Indian Financial Sector

The Central Government has been holding meetings with Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and German state-owned development bank KfW for access to low-cost capital to Indian MSMEs, according to MSME minister Nitin Gadkari. The comments gain significance as lack of capital is the biggest challenge for the growth of MSMEs.
-Financial Express
The RBI today asked banks to link all new floating-rate loans for housing, personal and MSMEs to external benchmark based interest rate from 1 Oct, in a bid to allow faster transmission of its rate cuts to consumers. It has been observed that due to various reasons, the transmission of policy rate changes to the lending rate of banks under the current MCLR framework has not been satisfactory, the RBI said in a statement.
-Livemint
PSBs can now create Chief General Manager (CGM) posts as per their business needs. The Department of Financial Services (DFS) in the Finance Ministry granted the flexibility to all nationalised banks. CGM posts (in a fresh scale termed as scale VIII) can be created (with Board approval) in nationalised banks that have total business of ₹10 lakh crore or higher, sources said. Such CGMs will act as an administrative and functional layer between the existing levels of General Manager and Executive Director. The number of CGM posts created should not exceed the ratio of 1:4 between the total number of posts of CGM and GM.
-Budiness Line
The RBI-constituted task-force on developing a vibrant secondary market for corporate loans has called for setting up a central loan contract registry to remove information asymmetries between buyers and sellers. The 6-member task force, headed by Canara Bank chairman TN Manoharan, was formed to examine the scope for developing a secondary market for corporate loans and make recommendations to facilitate rapid development of such a vibrant market.
-Business Standard
Global rating agency Moody's on September 4 upgraded the outlook on Punjab National Bank, which will merge OBC and United Bank of India with itself, to 'positive' from 'stable'. It also affirmed the local and foreign currency deposit ratings of Canara Bank, OBC, Syndicate Bank and Union Bank at Baa3/P-3.
-Moneycontrol.com
Canara Bank today said its board will meet next week to consider capital infusion of up to Rs 9,000 crore through issuance of preferential equity shares to the government of India. The board will also consider amalgamation of Syndicate Bank with it, the Bank said in a regulatory filing.
-Moneycontrol.com
HR integration will be the top priority in the merger of Syndicate Bank with Canara Bank and branch rationalisation would be looked at only after all aspects of integration are completek, . Syndicate Bank’s MD & CEO Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said. He saidthat the merger process will not slow down business.
-Economic Times
Canara Bank MD & CEO R A Sankara Narayanan, told that there would not be any loss of employment after merger. He had also confirmed that both the banks will stick to business projections and have a dedicated team to focus on integration without affecting normal business.
-Economic Times
LIC, that has seen its investment in IDBI Bank erode by more than half over the past year or so, has also seen the value of its investments in other PSU banks plunge. The sharp fall in the price of PSU bank stocks and dilution of its stake owing to capital infusion by the government, has eroded its wealth in these banks. LIC has lost over Rs 17,000 crore of its wealth in PSBs over the past year. Excluding IDBI Bank, it has lost over ₹4,800 crore in other PSBs.
-Business Line
ICICI Bank has cut its lending rates by 0.10% across all maturities, sources said on Sep 4. Under the revised rates, effective Sep 1, the bank's 1-year MCLR will come down to 8.55%, while the overnight MCLR will be 8.30%.
-Moneycontrol.com
Bank of Baroda will raise up to Rs 1,132.05 crore by issuing fresh shares to its staff under the Employee Share Purchase Scheme (ESPS), the bank said. Bank of Baroda will raise up to Rs 1,132.05 crore by issuing fresh shares to its staff under the ESPS, the bank said. The decision was taken by the compensation committee of the board at its meeting held on Tuesday, the bank said in a regulatory filing. decision was taken by the compensation committee of the board at its meeting held on Tuesday, the bank said in a regulatory filing.
-Moneycontrol.com
YES Bank has settled a case pertaining to ‘selective disclosure’ of assets quality with market regulator SEBI. The Bank settled the matter under the so-called consent mechanism paying Rs 51.6 lakh as settlement charges. Yes Bank’s compliance officer Shivanand Shettigar paid another Rs 14.45 lakh as settlement charges in the same matter.
-Business Standard
Wipro has received a long-term $300 million contract from ICICI Bank to provide digital technology led services. The Co said in a filing to the BSE that it has secured a strategic 7-year engagement from the bank.
-Economic Times
Digital payments saw significant growth in August, with the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and IMPS touching record highs in terms of both volumes and number of transactions, while payments on BHIM also rose to a 10-month high.
-Business Line
Rating agency CRISIL today cut India’s fiscal year 2020 GDP growthforecast to 6.3% from its earlier forecast of 6.9%, after the economy grew 5% in the first quarter, it’s slowest in almost 6 years. The agency said that lower GDP growth forecast corroborates that India’s economic slowdown is deeper and more broad-based than suspected.
-Economic Times
Even as gross NPA are expected to come down marginally by end of ongoing fiscal, assets over Rs 1 lakh crore that are under pressure are still to be recognised as bad loans, a report by ASSOCHAM- CRISIL said.
-Financial Express
BSNL is monetising land assets to improve revenue while cutting operational costs in the absence of revival package from the government, according to chairman Pravin Kumar Purwar. The telco is looking at cutting its workforce by nearly half once the Centre approves its much-awaited voluntary retirement scheme, Purwar told.
-Economic Times
Rising gold prices have prompted the RBI to apply the brakes to its purchase of the metal as a forex reserve asset. After the last offtake of 5.6 tonnes this April, the apex bank has not made any fresh purchases. According to the data from the International Monetary Fund's International Financial Statistics (IFS), RBI has been holding 618 tonnes of gold as part of its forex reserves since April this year.
-Business Standard
USD/INR 72.12
SENSEX 36724.74(+161.83)
NIFTY50 10844.65(+46.75)
 -#040919 
submitted by venuangamaly to indianews [link] [comments]

Whether India witnessed any leapfrog in the cashless payments due to DeMon & the force feeding by Govt & RBI? - fact check

Can you flaunt increase of even 200% of insignificant components like UPI and BHIM & say that we are leapfrog to DIGITAL UTOPIA? Ponder

Government is still in a Fools paradise and throttle the cash flow which is very much needed for the rural and retail economy of country

Edit:

If you have any queries related to this post, please address them directly to James Wilson on twitter.

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CLSA: Greed & Fear : Modi and Banking Amendments [NP]

Chris Wood of CLSA is one of the most revered Equity Strategist. He periodically writes 'GREED & FEAR' series explaining his views and strategies. He usually meets the policymakers, CEOs and sector experts before forming his opinions on each country and the market.
This is a txt copy of the latest edition.
CLSA: GREED & FEAR : MODI AND BANKING AMENDMENTS - 11th May 2017
GREED & fear’s base case for 2017, namely for global equity investors to be overweight global emerging markets and the Eurozone, has been strengthened by Emmanuel Macron’s victory. Macron’s victory will have further encouraged hopes of a re-energised Franco-German alliance at the heart of the Eurozone and related hopes of a renewed drive towards integration. Whether such hopes prove to be a reality is quite another matter. But for the moment they can propel European equities higher in the run up to the German election where GREED & fear’s base case remains a Merkel victory.
GREED & fear also remains constructive on the euro since the base case must be that Derivative Draghi will signal some increase in token tapering at the next ECB monetary policy meeting on 8 June.
As for the US, renewed hopes that the Trump administration will be able to pass reform of Obamacare are again encouraging expectations that tax reform can be passed more quickly than previously anticipated. This remains extremely optimistic from GREED & fear’s standpoint, with the major uncertainty whether Republicans in Congress will insist on the package being revenue neutral. But for now such hopes may keep the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 2.3% and therefore equities reasonably constructive. Yet if such hopes of near-term tax cuts are dashed, GREED & fear’s view remains that the yield curve is vulnerable to renewed flattening given that the evidence remains that the downside risk to economic growth in America are rising not falling. More tightening by the Fed, let alone the commencement of balance sheet contraction, increases the risk for US equities and strengthens the case to be long Treasury bonds absent aggressive tax cuts. It also increases the argument to be underweight American equities in a global portfolio.
It is a reality of market sentiment that the China reflation trade is currently being questioned. GREED & fear’s base case is that the bulk of the correction in commodities is over, be it in copper, iron ore and other China reflation trade proxies.
Still GREED & fear is much less sanguine on oil where hopes of keeping oil above US$50 rest on OPEC being able to agree on an extension of the current production agreement at its forthcoming meeting scheduled for 25 May. In the absence of such a deal, oil looks vulnerable.There is now a following wind in Europe until the German federal election in September where investors currently anticipate a positive result. The issue will then become whether a Eurozone with a Merkel-Macron leadership or, less likely, a Macron-Schulz leadership, will really push for renewed integration on a presumed path to fiscal union. For that is what will be required in GREED & fear’s view to keep Italy in the Eurozone.
If Asia and emerging markets remain an overweight forGREED & fear, India also remains the most preferred equity story in the emerging market universe on a ten-year view. This long-term constructive view has been strengthened by evidence that the Modi government is showing a renewed focus to address the asset quality problem in the banking sector.
The key development on the bad loan problem was the publication late last week of an ordinance amending the Banking Regulation Act. The key purpose of this amendment is to empower the Reserve Bank of India to intervene in specific cases of default as well as to give the central bank the authority to require specific defaults to be sent to the insolvency court if lenders and borrowers cannot reach resolution.The other aim of this amendment is to remove a concern shared by all bankers that, if they agree to a haircut on a specific loan, they will be at risk of future investigation by the judiciary or an investigative agency. It is the reluctance of the banks to take haircuts which has been the key cause of India’s long festering banking problem.The lack of progress addressing this legacy problem in the banking sector is the main reason why India is still seeing no evidence of a renewed private sector-driven investment cycle. While there have, in GREED & fear’s view, been enormous achievements in other areas of policy, the missing link is the banking sector with the bulk of the problem lying in the state-owned banks.The new approach requires the RBI to execute proactively on its new powers. The good news is that the RBI’s technocratic approach means that its management of the NPA problem will be less politicised than if handled by other government agencies. The word in Delhi is that the RBI will come out with clear guidelines in the near future on how this process will work.There is naturally much scepticism as to whether resolutions of bad debt cases will happen given the previous failure to address the NPA problem. Still, in GREED & fear’s view it is wrong to be too sceptical since, if the RBI is prepared to be tough, it has the leverage to apply, since it now has the power to invoke the insolvency code against defaulters. Once the NPA issue is resolved, the way will be clear for the public sector banks to raise capital, a process which should also lead, with the encouragement of both the RBI and the government, to the consolidation of the public sector banks.
The rest of the Indian story under the extraordinary Modi remains as vibrant as ever. While it is true that the Aadhaar programme was launched under the previous government, the real roll out and practical application of the programme has been massively leveraged since Modi assumed power. The benefits of direct electronic payments are hard to exaggerate in terms of reduced leakages and the like.
There is also the approaching launch of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). While this will not be as clean as originally hoped, the arrival of GST is a big deal. The fundamental point to focus on is that GST will end inter-state barriers to trade. The result should be increased tax revenues.GREED & fear remains constructive even if the Indian stock market is certainly expensive on a forward earnings basis. The continuing rise in the stock market year to date, and the resulting re-rating, has been triggered primarily by ongoing strong inflows into domestic equity mutual funds.These inflows into the mutual funds have been a feature ever since Modi was elected and reflect a growing preference for financial assets over traditional assets not traditionally visible to the taxman in India, namely property and gold.
The investment in Naver in the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio will be removed. An investment in Indian state-owned bank State Bank of India will be initiated with a 3% weighting, while a further 1ppt will be added to the existing investment in HDFC.China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$20.4bn in April. This marks the first time China’s forex reserves have increased for three consecutive months since June 2014. CLSA’s economics team estimates a mark-to-market gain of US$25bn in April, which implies a balance of payments deficit of only US$5bn in April. This further reinforces the view here that capital flight in China is not out of control.The latest Chinese inflation data provides further evidence that China PPI inflation has already peaked. PPI inflation slowed for the second consecutive month, down from 7.6% YoY in March to 6.4% YoY in April. The slowdown can be partly explained by the base effect. But China PPI also declined on a month on month basis for the first time since June 2016.
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Explained: External Benchmarking How to Prepare Trading Set-Up for Intraday Trading ll IFMC INSTITUTE Economy 10: Currency Exchange Rate & Forex Reduced Repo Rate, Negative GDP Growth: Key RBI Announcements  ABP News Foreign Reserves of India, Analysis of 4 big potential threats faced by Forex, Current Affairs 2018 RBI 247  Daily RBI Current  RBI Grade B 2020 & SEBI Grade A 2020  Day 73 RBI Non CSG Various Post Online Form 2020.

Forex reserves increased to $454.49 billion in the week ended December 13, RBI data shows Mumbai: India's foreign exchange reserves continued their upward trajectory during the week ended December ... Forex Reserves Touch Life Time High of $555.12 Billion: RBI Data. File photo of the Reserve Bank of India logo. During the latest reporting week, the rise in total reserves was due to a sharp rise in Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves. PTI; Last Updated: October 23, 2020, 20:32 IST; FOLLOW US ON: Facebook Twitter. Instagram Telegram Google News. The ... The RBI's earning from Rs 35.40 lakh crore of forex reserves is just 2.65 per cent as revealed in the annual report 2019-20. The two big revenue generating assets in the RBI's balance sheet are ... Forex reserves fall by $12 bn : RBI data. The rupee hit an all-time low of 76.15 against the US dollar on March 23 as foreign investors continued to withdraw money from domestic equity and debt ... RBI data on Indian forex turnover: Jul 27 to Jul 31 . By . 0 Min Read. Sep 16 (Refinitiv) - The Reserve Bank of India today released the data showing daily merchant and inter-bank transactions in ... After record high, forex reserves decline $3 bn to $542 bn: RBI data Forex reserves surge to $537.548 bn, gold reserves down at $37.26 bn Forex reserves up by $3.378 bn to lifetime high of $545.038 bn: RBI India's forex reserves climb $ 3.1 bn to record high of $516.362 bn Forex reserves hit an all-time high of $534.5 bn in week ended July 31 April 14, 2015 Dear All Welcome to the refurbished site of the Reserve Bank of India. The two most important features of the site are: One, in addition to the default site, the refurbished site also has all the information bifurcated functionwise; two, a much improved search – well, at least we think so but you be the judge.

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