RBI & how its policies can start to affect the market
Disclaimer: This DD is to help start forming a market view as per RBI announcements. Also a gentle reminder that fundamentals play out over a longer time frame than intraday. The authors take no responsiblity for your yolos. With contributions by Asli Bakchodi, Bran OP & dragononweed! What is the RBI? RBI is the central bank of India. They are one of the key players who affect India’s economic trajectory. They control currency supply, banking rules and more. This means that it is not a bank in which retailers or corporates can open an account with. Instead they are a bank for bankers and the Government of India. Their functions can be broadly classified into 6. · Monetary authority · Financial supervisor for financial system · Issuer of currency · Manages Foreign exchange · Bankers bank · Banker to the government This DD will take a look at each of these functions. It will be followed by a list of rates the RBI sets, and how changes in them can affect the market. 1.Monetary Authority One of RBI’s functions is to achieve the goal of “Price Stability” in the economy. This essentially means achieving an inflation rate that is within a desired limit. A monetary policy committee (MPC) decides on the desired inflation rate and its limits through majority vote of its 6 members, in consultation with the GoI. The current inflation target for RBI is as follows Consumer Price Inflation (CPI): 4% Upper Limit: 6% Lower Limit: 2% An increase in CPI means less purchasing power. Generally speaking, if inflation is too high, the public starts cutting down on spending, leading to a negative impact on the markets. And vice versa. Lower inflation leads to more purchasing power, more spending, more investments leading to a positive impact on the market. 2.Financial Supervisor For Financial System A financial system consists of financial markets (Capital market, money market, forex market etc.), financial institutions (banks, stock exchanges, NBFC etc) & financial assets (currencies, bills, bonds etc) RBI supervises this entire system and lays down the rules and regulations for it. It can also use further ‘Selective Credit Controls’ to regulate banks. 3.Issues of currency The RBI is responsible for the printing of currency notes. RBI is free to print as much as it wants as long as the minimum reserve of Rs 200 Cr (Gold 112 Cr) is maintained. The RBI has total assets or a balance size sheet of Rs. 51 trillion (April 2020). (1 Trillion = 1 Lakh crore) India’s current reserves mean our increase in currency circulation is well managed. 4.Manages Foreign Exchange RBI regulates all of India’s foreign exchange transactions. It is the custodian of all of foreign currencies in India. It allows for the foreign exchange value of the rupee to be controlled. RBI also buy and sell rupees in the foreign exchange market at its discretion. In case of any currency movement, a country’s central bank can directly intervene to either push the currency up, as India has been doing, or to keep it artificially low, as the Chinese central bank does. To push up a currency, a central bank can sell dollars, which is the global reserve currency, or the currency against which all others are measured. To push down a currency, a central bank can buy dollars. The RBI deciding this depends on the import/export and financial health of the country. Generally a weaker rupee means imports are more expensive, but are favourable for exports. And a stronger rupee means imports are cheaper but are unfavourable for exports. A weaker rupee can make foreign investment more lucrative driving up FII. A stronger rupee can have an adverse effect of FII investing in markets. 5.Banker’s Bank Every bank has to maintain a certain amount of reserve with the RBI. A certain percentage of a bank’s liabilities (anywhere between 3-15% as decided by RBI) has to be maintained in this account. This is called the Cash Reserve Ratio. This is determined by the MPC during the monetary policy review (which happens every six weeks at present). It lends money from this reserve to other banks if they are short on cash, but generally, it is seen as a last resort move. Banks are encouraged to meet their shortfalls of cash from other resources. 6.Banker to the government RBI is the entity that carries out ALL monetary transactions on behalf of the Government. It holds custody of the cash balance of the Government, gives temporary loans to both central and state governments and manages the debt operations of the central Government, through instruments of debt and the interest rates associated with them - like bonds. The different rates set & managed by RBI - Repo rate The rate at which RBI is willing to lend to commercial banks is called as Repo Rate. Banks sometimes need money for emergency or to maintain the SLR and CRR (explained below). They borrow this from RBI but have to pay some interest on it. The interest that is to be paid on the amount to the RBI is called as Repo Rate. It does not function like a normal loan but acts like a forward contract. Banks have to provide collateral like government bonds, T-bills etc. Repo means Repurchase Option is the true meaning of Repo an agreement where the bank promises to repurchase these government securities after the repo period is over. As a tool to control inflation, RBI increases the Repo Rate making it more expensive for banks to borrow from the RBI with a view to restrict availability of money. Exact opposite stance shall be taken in case of deflationary environment. The change of repo rate is aimed to affect the flow of money in the economy. An increase in repo rate decreases the flow of money in the economy, while the decrease in repo rate increases the flow of money in the economy. RBI by changing these rates shows its stance to the economy at large whether they prioritize growth or inflation. - Reverse Repo Rate The rate at which the RBI is willing to borrow from the Banks is called as Reverse Repo Rate. If the RBI increases the reverse repo rate, it means that the RBI is willing to offer lucrative interest rate to banks to park their money with the RBI. Banks in this case agree to resell government securities after reverse repo period. Generally, an increase in reverse repo rate that banks will have a higher incentive to park their money with RBI. It decreases liquidity, affecting the market in a negative manner. Decrease in reverse repo rate increases liquidity affecting the market in a positive manner. Both the repo rate and reverse repo rate fall under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility tools for RBI. - Cash reserve ratio (CRR) Banks in India are required to deposit a specific percentage of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in the form of CASH with the RBI. This minimum ratio (that is the part of the total deposits to be held as cash) is stipulated by the RBI and is known as the CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio. These reserves will not be in circulation at any point in time. For example, if a bank had a NDTL (like current Account, Savings Account and Fixed Deposits) of 100Cr and the CRR is at 3%, it would have to keep 3Cr as Cash reserve ratio to the RBI. This amount earns no interest. Currently it is at 3%. A lower cash ratio means banks can deposit just a lower amount and use the remaining money leading to higher liquidity. This translates to more money to invest which is seen as positive for the market. Inversely, a higher cash ratio equates to lower liquidity which translates to a negative market sentiment. Thus, the RBI uses the CRR to control excess money flow and regulate liquidity in the economy. - Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) Banks in India have to keep a certain percentage of their net demand and time liabilities WITH THEMSELVES. And this can be in the form of liquid assets like gold and government securities, not just cash. A lot of banks keep them in government bonds as they give a decent interest. The current SLR ratio of 18.25%, which means that for every Rs.100 deposited in a bank, it has to invest Rs.18.50 in any of the asset classes approved by RBI. A low SLR means higher levels of loans to the private sector. This boosts investment and acts as a positive sentiment for the market. Conversely a high SLR means tighter levels of credit and can cause a negative effect on the market. Essentially, the RBI uses the SLR to control ease of credit in the economy. It also ensures that the banks maintain a certain level of funds to meet depositor’s demands instead of over liquidation. - Bank Rate Bank rate is a rate at which the Reserve Bank of India provides the loan to commercial banks without keeping any security. There is no agreement on repurchase that will be drawn up or agreed upon with no collateral as well. This is different from repo rate as loans taken with repo rate are taken on the basis of securities. Bank rate hence is higher than the repo rate. Currently the bank rate is 4.25%. Since bank rate is essentially a loan interest rate like repo rate, it affects the market in similar ways. - Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) This is the minimum rate below which the banks are not allowed to lend. Raising this rate, makes loans more expensive, drying up liquidity, affecting the market in a negative way. Similarly, lower MCLR rates will bring in high liquidity, affecting the market in a positive way. MCLR is a varying lending rate instead of a single rate according to the kind of loans. Currently, the MCLR rate is between 6.65% - 7.15% - Marginal Standing facility Marginal Standing Facility is the interest rate at which a depository institution (generally banks) lends or borrows funds with another depository institution in the overnight market. Overnight market is the part of financial market which offers the shortest term loans. These loans have to be repaid the next day. MSF can be used by a bank after it exhausts its eligible security holdings for borrowing under other options like the Liquidity adjustment facilities. The MSF would be a penal rate for banks and the banks can borrow funds by pledging government securities within the limits of the statutory liquidity ratio. The current rate stands at 4.25%. The effect it has on the market is synonymous with the other lending rates such as repo rate & bank rate. - Loan to value ratio The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is an assessment of lending risk that financial institutions and other lenders examine before approving a mortgage. Typically, loan assessments with high LTV ratios are considered higher risk loans. Basically, if a companies preferred form of collateral rises in value and leads the market (growing faster than the market), then the company will see the loans that it signed with higher LTV suddenly reduce (but the interest rate remains the same). Let’s consider an example of gold as a collateral. Consider a loan was approved with gold as collateral. The market price for gold is Rs 2000/g, and for each g, a loan of Rs 1500 was given. (The numbers are simplified for understanding). This would put LTV of the loan at 1500/2000 = 0.75. Since it is a substantial LTV, say the company priced the loan at 20% interest rate. Now the next year, the price of gold rose to Rs 3000/kg. This would mean that the LTV of the current loan has changed to 0.5 but the company is not obligated to change the interest rate. This means that even if the company sees a lot of defaults, it is fairly protected by the unexpected surge in the underlying asset. Moreover, since the underlying asset is more valuable, default rates for the loans goes down as people are more protective of the collateral they have placed. The same scenario for gold is happening right now and is the reason for gold backed loan providers like MUTHOOT to hit ATHs as gold is leading the economy right now. Also, these in these scenarios, it also enables companies to offer additional loan on same gold for those who are interested Instead of keeping the loan amount same most of the gold loan companies. Based on above, we can see that as RBI changes LTV for certain assets, we are in a position to identify potential institutions that could get a good Quarterly result and try to enter it early. Conclusion The above rates contain the ways in the Central Bank manages the monetary policy, growth and inflation in the country. Its impact on Stock market is often seen when these rates are changed, they act as triggers for the intraday positions on that day. But overall, the outlook is always maintained on how the RBI sees the country is doing, and knee jerk reactions are limited to intraday positions. The long term stance is always well within the limits of the outlook the big players in the market are expecting. The important thing to keep in mind is that the problems facing the economy needn’t be uni-dimensional. Problems with inflation, growth, liquidity, currency depreciation all can come together, for which the RBI will have to play a balancing role with all it powers to change these rates and the forex reserve. So the effect on the market needs to be given more thought than simply extrapolated as ‘rates go low, markets go up’. But understanding these individual effects of these rates allows you to start putting together the puzzle of how and where the market and the economy could go.
The RBI may face legal challenges to its rule on the age limit for bank CEOs, unless it is changed. The RBI caps the age limit for banks at 70. But under the Companies Act, banks that are also registered companies can have chief executives who are over 70 years of age by passing a special resolution. IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank have their current chiefs reaching the RBI age cap over the next year and half, said analysts. -Economic Times Finance Industry Development Council wants the RBI to allow deposit-taking NBFCs with an asset size of more than ₹500 crore to be eligible for grant of Category II Forex licence. -Business Line None of the ATMs of Dena Bank, Vijaya Bank and Bank of Baroda will be closed down or deemed redundant for the next 1-2 years following the merger, according to Rajesh Malhotra, general manager, BoB. -The Hindu A 93-year-old bank in Tamil Nadu is moving to Mumbai. The boards of Lakshmi Vilas Bank and Indiabulls Housing Finance this week approved the merger between the two to create what would be known as the ‘Indiabulls Lakshmi Vilas Bank’.Now the merged entity - Indiabulls Lakshmi Vilas Bank - will shift headquarters to Mumbai. -Economic Times SBI is targeting over 15% growth in its real estate portfolio and 12-14% overall growth in the retail book in the coming financial year, Parveen Kumar Gupta, MD-retail and digital banking, told. -Financial Express HDFC Bank reported a 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in advances for March 2019 at Rs 8.1 lakh crore, while its deposits grew by 17% to Rs 7.8 lakh crore. -Financial Express David Malpass, US President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the World Bank, won unanimous approval from the institution's executive board on Friday, continuing the 73-year tradition of an American running the world's largest development lender. -Business Line The recent Supreme Court order relating to EPS may open the doors for employees who were till now excluded from EPS to join the scheme. Also, the pension calculation formula may change resulting in increase in pension for employees who have already contributed to pension on full pay in the past. Going forward, the pension may be calculated on the basis of average salary of last 12 months and not 60 months which was the basis till now. Apart from these, the ruling has also opened doors to all existing members of EPFO to avail option of contributing on higher salary for a higher pension in the future. However, the above is in the realm of 'possible' because EPFO is yet to come out with its view on the impact of the SC ruling. -Economic Times Amit Shah, who was a stock broker by profession before jumping into active politics, owns hundreds of listed and unlisted stocks, key among them being RIL,TCS, Bajaj Auto, Colgate-Palmolive, Grasim, HUL, L&T Finance and UltraTech Cement, among others. His affidavit, filed with the Election Commission of India as part of his nomination papers Lok Sabha seat, shows he held listed shares worth Rs 17.56 crore as of March 22, 2019. Unlike his opponent though, Rahul Gandhi has equity exposure mainly through mutual funds. His affidavit for the Wayanad constituency shows his investments are in mutual funds only instead of directly holding stocks. Rahul Gandhi has investments worth Rs 5.19 crore in 10 mutual fund schemes. -Economic Times
We created this website to bring together all the tools and services you’ll need to start trading for real. If you want to start taking advantage of the markets now, without having to become an expert, our free trading signal. Whatever you’re looking for, you’ll find it with us. Here you’ll learn the basic terminology to be a successful Forex trader. To begin learning Forex, you’ll need to have a good grasp on the basic definitions, rules and terms used by professional traders. At first, this can sound daunting but after we spell out the fundamentals, it will become clearer and you’ll be on your way to becoming a Forex trader. We will cover terms, such as; base currency, the quote currency, micro lots, mini lots, standard lots, long position, short position, pips, spread, margin and many more. Someone who is using more than 10% of the whole equity into a trading session is probably not having a good money management strategy. Because you should always trade safe and also because the market may turn back on you and you would find yourself in a big margin problem. With good risk management, having 10% of your account invested can bring consistent returns with no problems.
Profit Rate :
Some traders can’t make 10% per year. Others can safely and consistently make 30% per month and they are not afraid to show their verified performance as a solid proof of what they offer. While taking into consideration a proper risk and money management, you should never aim to make millions in one week with a small account because that would probably mean hitting margin call. Just remember: a good strategy and analysis will always bring profits. And if at the end of the month you have only 1% profit, that means you don’t have -1% loss.
Choosing the Best Forex Broker :
In order to start trading Forex, you will need to find the right online Forex broker for you with the cash rebate program. It’s important to find the right Forex broker for your trading needs according to several important criteria, such as security, customer service, trading platform, transaction costs, live quotes and more. While reading our guide on how to choose the best FOREX BROKERS.
Forex for free :
Most Forex brokers offer many free options, services, tips and information to help you trade better. Real-time charts and news, help guides, and blogs help you understand and learn about the market in real time. There are also many “demo” accounts to try the market before putting in real money.
Why Trade Forex?
The Forex market is fast becoming the most attractive and popular market in the world. The traditional stock is no longer relevant and traders are moving fast into the Forex. We collected here a few reasons to show you why this is happening and what advantages the Forex market has to make is so popular. We choose to focus on a few very important advantages of the Forex trading and the reasons that people choose this market: forex is the largest financial market in the world. The daily volume of the Forex market is huge over $3 trillion per day. This makes the stability of the market very good compared to stock trading. The price in the Forex market is exactly what you see is what you get and you can follow it very easily. Forex trading simplifies everything, there’s no clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees, no middlemen. The elimination of the middlemen gets the traders closer to the actual trade and makes the traders responsible for their pricing. The brokers are usually paid through a service called “bid-ask spread”. The Forex market is open 24 hours a day. Opening on Monday morning (in Australia) and closing in the afternoon (in New York). This is great for traders that can trade all day long or in parts. You can choose the times that are convenient for your trading, day-night, when you eat or when you sleep, whenever you want. In Forex trading you can minimize the risk by depositing a small amount that will control a larger contract value. This is controlled by leverage and can make you profitable in the Forex market. If a broker gives 50 to 1 leverage it means that with $50 deposit you can buy or sell with $2500. If you put $500, you can trade with $25,000. All this needs to be done with great risk management because high leverage can easily lead to great loss, as well as great profit. The Forex market is huge and therefore also very liquid. This means that on every buys or sell that you make, there will be someone who will take the other side of the trade. You will never be grounded because there’s no one on the other side. To get started you would think that you need a lot of money. The reality is that online Forex brokers have “mini” and “micro” options and some of them have a minimum of only $25. This is great for Forex beginners because it makes the trading starting point easier. I’m not saying that you need to start with the minimum, but being cautious is never bad and starting small is good for the average trader. main trading company
Forex the best trading market :
You can easily predict the movements in the Forex market you have many repetitive patterns and it’s fairly easy to learn, recognize and analyze these movements. The prices tend to go up or down and return to the average. They stay for quite a long time up or down and this stability makes the Forex market a much easier market to follow. This gives the traders a huge advantage in controlling their trades much better than the disorder.
Risk Warning :
We always suggest our clients to carefully consider their investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. try to money management with every trade. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. FOREX IN WORLD takes no responsibility for loss incurred as a result of our trading signals. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. FOREX TRADING IN INDIA: Forex means currency pair trading. Indian citizens can trade only currencies that have a pairing with INR. It is legal to trade with Indian Brokers providing access to Indian Exchanges(NSE, BSE, MCX-SX) providing access to Currency Derivatives. Since 2008, RBI and SEBI have permitted trading in currency derivatives. The currency pairs available for trading are USD-INR, EUR-INR, JPY-INR and GBP-INR.
The RBI prohibits Forex trading activities; however, when you trade with INR as the base currency, Forex trading is legal! As an Indian Forex trader, trading two foreign currencies is considered illegal and can even land you in big trouble if you try to conduct it. In the past, Forex trading in India done on foreign currencies has caused severe disruptions in currency values and has affected the economy first-hand! This is why the RBI has strictly ruled out trading foreign currencies but allows for trading with INR. Click here to know how to trade Forex legally in India.
Increase in population has made international tourism in India a bright industry. However, Indian travelers have forgotten the crucial aspect of foreign exchange. Here are a few hacks one should consider to ensure best value for their money, while traveling to other countries on business or leisure.
Say no to the counters at airports: The foreign exchange counters at airports provide a premium of 10 to 13% over the usual exchange rates, and this will only reduce the amount of currency one has at their disposal during their trip. A foreign exchange counter at airports is simply waiting to exploit a desperate traveler. So be smart and buy foreign currency 3-7 days before the travel, and stay away from the foreign exchange counters at airports.
Compare: Forex rates change on a dynamic scale and some agencies will hardly keep up with these variations. Not understanding the dynamics of forex can make one get a bad deal for the exchange, which reduces one’s ability to spend and enjoy the trip.
Check for RBI authorization: Not many are aware of the importance of RBI authorization. Exchanging currency at an unauthorized dealer or agent can lead to trouble after the transaction. Since most of the unauthorized dealers are suspected to be involved in scams, it is highly possible for you to get dragged into serious legal issues if you do business with such agencies.
Use a smarter way to carry currency: Travelers still carry cheques and it is an antiquated way to carry foreign currency. Switch to forex cards, as these cards have multiple benefits over traveler’s cheques. When encashing a substantial amount, the 3 to 5 % markup can add up to a lot of money. Using forex cards(multi currency travel money card) avoids this problem, and is a more secure and easier option.
First, you would need to consider your options. Would you want to go to banks or regular currency vendors/dealers? You could evenbuy USD online or for that matter, most currencies. You can buy from banks or even from national post offices so there are no chances of acquiring counterfeit currency. In case you don’t hold an account in a specific bank, the bank may choose to carry out transactions through cards so you end up paying convenience fees. When you go to private dealers/vendors, you should ensure that they are a credible name, and have the requisite authorisation from RBI, India’s central bank.
Don’t exchange from the first vendor you see. Compare rates from at least a couple of vendors when you set out to buy foreign exchange in India.
Avoid exchanging currency at airports or other travel-related kiosks. Airports charge a high exchange rate as they try to cash in on travellers looking for exchange at the last minute. It is also best to avoid buying forex from local bazaars or markets where there are many unauthorised dealers.
Buying from an online exchange is also one option. You can check latest forex rates and buy foreign exchange when the rates are most favourable for you.
Use the 80-20 rule when you carry foreign exchange. You can carry 80 per cent of the funds by way of a multi currency travel money cardand the remaining 20 per cent in cash. Carrying heavy cash means constantly being worried about safety. So, when you carry a majority of your spending on a travel card, you cut down on your anxiety and enjoy the holiday.
Also, make sure you get your foreign exchange a week ahead of your trip because it allows you to watch for any major fluctuations. It gives you greater leeway to plan. If you leave it too late, you have no option but to accept whatever value is offered.
Using a forex travel card is safe and you can preload multiple currencies. You can use any well-known bank to obtain one. The process is fairly simple as well. The advantage of using a forex card is that the value of the currency loaded is frozen at the time of your getting it and is not vulnerable to variations in exchange rates later. There are no risks involved because the card is not linked to your bank account. On the other hand, a debit or credit card can make your bank account vulnerable to theft. Transaction fees are high on credit/debit cards as well.
Keep these tips in mind and have a fun-filled and worry-free holiday!
Concerns over using credit card for international online transactions. (details in description)
Hello, first of all this is not a concern about identity theft or doubting merchant's authenticity. I am aware of the cardholder protection against fraudlent transcations and its completly safe technically. What I am concerned about is the RBI's circular which was published last year (Link)(relevent now because Aliexpress is going to have 3/29 aniversary sale and I have so many products to purchase) which affects the tranctions made to international ecommerce/service providers. This not only affects everyone who is intrested in buying stuffs from international portals but even those webmasters and developers who want to buy hosting, domain and other services. Some of the portals are exempted by this rule like google play, App Store and such but we can never be too sure what websites are supported and what are not. So I was hoping if someone could throw a light on the policy and make things clear. The basic doubt that I'm having is should I use my credit card for international online purchases or just drop the idea completly. New RBI restrictions may impact your international online purchases
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Forex trading legal or illegal in India with proof in hindi
FEMA rules for RBI Reporting by AD CAIIB BFM Unit 7 By Kamal Sir. who are interested in cross currency trading like forex trading in India there is a good news for them that rbi has decided to increase the number of scripts of cross currency and you can see that ... In this video we shall discuss the RBI Current Affairs Forex Retail Trading Platform ... Warren Buffett Top 10 Rules - Duration: 8:38. Evan Carmichael Recommended for you. 8:38 . How is the ... Welcome to our You Tube Channel About this video: RBI new rules and guidlines for debit and credit cards transactions 2020 For more inspirational\motivationa... RBI’s draft report suggested changes in the timings of the foreign exchange market and call money market. In conversation with Edelweiss' Sajal Gupta. Read m...